Workday's AI Hype Train: All Aboard for Disappointment?
Okay, Workday's latest earnings are out, and naturally, everyone's creaming their jeans over the "AI portfolio." Give me a freakin' break. "AI this," "AI that." It's the same song and dance every quarter.
So, the numbers look "good," right? Revenue up, subscription numbers are up...yadda yadda. Then why the hell did WDAY stock price drop after hours? Workday Stock Fall As Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates: Details - Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY)
Wall Street's a fickle beast, I guess. One minute they're chugging the Kool-Aid, the next they're spitting it out all over the floor. Maybe they finally realized that "AI-powered synergy" is just corporate buzzword bingo.
Eschenbach, the CEO, says they're "giving customers a real edge" with this AI stuff. A "real edge?" What does that even MEAN? Is it like a dull butter knife, or a freakin' samurai sword? I'm picturing middle managers nodding along in meetings, pretending they understand any of this.
And this whole "unifying people, money, and AI agents" thing...it sounds like a dystopian nightmare. Are we all just going to be replaced by algorithms in five years? Offcourse, that's what all the tech bros WANT to happen.
They keep mentioning the Paradox acquisition in the fine print. "Oh, it's boosting our backlog numbers!" Yeah, but at what cost? Did they overpay? Are they just trying to buy their way into relevancy? I'm not seeing a clear win here.
I mean, it closed in Q3. So what? The 12-month subscription revenue backlog was $8.21 billion, up 17.6%. Okay, great...but how much of that is actually new business, and how much is just accounting tricks and the Paradox baggage?
And speaking of accounting tricks, let's not forget the non-GAAP numbers they love to shove in our faces. "Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 29%!" Translation: "We're making up numbers to make ourselves look good."
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe everyone else is drinking the Kool-Aid and I'm just too cynical to see the "innovation." Nah, I doubt it.
I had a burger for lunch today, and the pickle was slimy. What's up with that? Fast food places can't even get a pickle right, but we're supposed to trust them with "enterprise AI solutions?"
The analysts are all over the place, too. "Moderate Buy," they say. What the hell does that even mean? Are they moderately confident? Moderately clueless?
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria (whoever that is) has a "Neutral" rating but raised the price target. So, he's neutral, but thinks the price will go up? Makes perfect sense.
And this "mean price target of $282.06" with a "street-high target of $340" is just wishful thinking. It's like saying I'm going to win the lottery because I bought a ticket. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not a freakin' chance.
What I want to know is, are these analysts actually using Workday's products, or are they just regurgitating corporate talking points? I bet half of them couldn't even explain what "cloud HCM suites" are if their lives depended on it.
It's all smoke and mirrors. Workday's riding the AI wave like everyone else, but underneath it all, it's the same old enterprise software game. They're selling a dream, and suckers are buying it.
