Options Expiry: A $16 Billion Crypto Litmus Test
Options Expiry: A Crypto Thermometer
The end of October 2025 is shaping up to be a significant moment for crypto, with over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options set to expire on Deribit. The expiry date is October 31st, 8:00 UTC, and this isn't just another date on the calendar; it's a potential catalyst for market movement. A similar event last week saw $6 billion in contracts expire, but this month's rollover of October contracts makes it a far larger event.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $91,389, heading into expiry, with the "max pain" point sitting at $100,000. (Max pain, for the uninitiated, is the strike price where the most option holders will experience maximum losses.) Historically, the price tends to gravitate towards this zone as expiry nears, a result of market makers hedging their positions. In this instance, 145,482 contracts worth $13.28 billion are set to close. The put-to-call ratio sits at 0.54, suggesting a prevailing bullish sentiment. But is it that simple?
Deribit analysts note that the recent market pullback has influenced positioning. Traders who were long puts (betting on a price decrease) took profit when Bitcoin hit the $81,000 to $82,000 range. They're still keeping some protection in place with 80-85k strikes, but the "dominant trade of the week" has been a bullish end-of-year (EoY) December call condor, targeting a Santa rally.
This call condor, an options strategy designed to profit from a specific price range, has been particularly aggressive. The initial buy-in started around $86,500 and went up to $88,000, with follow-on buys adding volume. The buyer is targeting $100,000+ by December 26th, with an ideal settlement between $106,000 and $112,000, offering a potential 10:1 payoff. That’s a bold bet, even by crypto standards.
However, there's a counter-narrative at play. While some are aggressively betting on a rebound, others have been actively capping upside through overwriting strategies. These "persistent and familiar Call over-writers" on the December 100k and January 100-105k calls are dampening implied volatility (IV). As Deribit analysts put it, "much is inconclusive."
Ethereum's $1.7B Expiry: Riding Bitcoin's Volatility?
Ethereum in Bitcoin's Shadow?
Ethereum is also facing a significant expiry, with $1.7 billion in notional value at stake. The asset is trading at $3,014, with a max pain level of $3,400. There are 387,010 calls open versus 187,198 puts, for a total of 574,208 contracts and a put–call ratio of 0.48.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum's positioning is less extreme. The downside skew is lighter, and open interest is more evenly distributed across major strikes. The main question is whether Bitcoin volatility will spill over into the broader market and affect ETH. Given ETH’s consolidation relative to BTC, its fate seems tied to Bitcoin's movements.
Liquidity conditions could shift rapidly across both BTC and ETH as billions in open interest unwind. If spot prices move towards max pain levels, market makers could dampen volatility. However, if volatility spikes, these expiries could act as accelerants. In other words, we're looking at a potential powder keg.
The market is clearly divided between defensive hedging and bullish year-end bets. Which brings me to the crux of the matter: what does this expiry really *mean*?
I've looked at enough of these option expiry reports to know that the "expert" consensus is often wrong. The data is noisy, and human emotions are even noisier. But one thing that stands out is the sheer *size* of this expiry. $16 billion isn’t chump change; it's a sum that can move markets.
Bitcoin & Ethereum Brace for $15 Billion November Options Expiry
And this is the part of the analysis that I find genuinely interesting: the contrast between the large call condor (targeting a Santa rally) and the persistent call overwriting. It tells a story of two camps: one, aggressively betting on upside, and the other, cautiously capping gains. The tension between these opposing forces is what makes this expiry so compelling.
Which side will win? That's the million-dollar question (or, in this case, the $16 billion question). The data suggests heightened volatility is almost guaranteed. Whether that volatility leads to a Santa rally or a post-Halloween slump remains to be seen.
A Coiled Spring Ready to Snap?
