Social Security recipients are slated to receive a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026. The Social Security Administration (SSA) is touting this as a win, but a closer look at the numbers suggests it might be more of a mirage than genuine relief. About 70 million Americans depend on the SSA for monthly income, so any change, positive or negative, has a massive impact.
The headline 2.8% COLA sounds decent, but the devil's in the details. While the average retiree might see their monthly benefit increase by about $56, Medicare Part B premiums are also jumping – by a hefty $17.90 per month, landing at $202.90 in 2026. And the annual deductible? Up $26 to $283.
That premium hike consumes nearly a third of the COLA increase. As Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, rightly pointed out, that's a 9.7% rate of increase for Medicare Part B versus a COLA of just 2.8%. Premiums are rising almost 3.5 times faster than the COLA. This discrepancy raises a critical question: Is the COLA truly keeping pace with the rising cost of living, or is it just a symbolic gesture undermined by escalating healthcare expenses?
It’s like getting a small raise only to discover your rent went up by the same amount. You technically earned more, but your actual purchasing power hasn't changed.
Now, there's the "hold harmless" provision, which caps Part B premium increases for some beneficiaries. But this only applies to those who have their premiums deducted directly from their Social Security benefits and don't pay higher premiums due to income. Philip Moeller estimates about a million beneficiaries will benefit from this cap. What about the rest?
Beyond the immediate COLA and Medicare tug-of-war, there's a much larger storm brewing on the horizon: the impending Social Security trust fund depletion. The trustees project that the fund will be exhausted in late 2032. That's less than seven years away.
When that happens, an across-the-board benefit cut of 24% is projected to kick in. For an average dual-income couple retiring in early 2033, that translates to an annual benefit cut of $18,400. Eighteen thousand four hundred dollars! That's not pocket change; that's a significant chunk of retirement income vanished.
I’ve looked at these projections for years, and the lack of urgency from politicians is genuinely baffling. They pledge to "protect" Social Security by not touching it, which is essentially a guarantee that the benefit cuts will happen. It's like watching a slow-motion train wreck and refusing to apply the brakes.
This brings us to the central question: Why aren't our leaders being honest about the future of Social Security? The solutions are known – adjustments to payroll taxes, benefit formulas, or retirement ages – but they require political courage to implement. Instead, we get empty promises and avoidance, which only exacerbates the problem.
The SSA confirmed that all beneficiaries will receive a 2.8 percent boost to their benefits next year, known as the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA). That increase amounts to an estimated $56 more per month for the average retiree receiving Social Security. But how far will that $56 really go? Social Security payments — final November wave arrives Wednesday for 70 million beneficiaries with direct deposit only ahead of 2026 COLA boost next month
The 2026 COLA feels less like a raise and more like a carefully crafted illusion. The small increase is quickly swallowed by rising Medicare costs, and the looming threat of benefit cuts in 2032 casts a long shadow over the program's future. It’s time for a serious, data-driven conversation about Social Security, not just political posturing.
